Russia’s oil exports fall the steepest since the start of the war

In the seven days to July 7, Russia’s weekly crude exports fell the most since before the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, while the less volatile four-week average fell to the lowest level since February.

There was no clear reason for the drop in shipments that stood out in the markets. There were no developments in loading schedules indicating maintenance work, nor were there any adverse weather conditions affecting the berthing or loading of vessels.

However, shipments from the Baltic, Black Sea and Pacific were down from the previous week.

According to Bloomberg, exportable crude oil is likely to fall as Russia’s compliance with the OPEC+ production target increases.

Using Moscow’s conversion factor of 7.18 barrels per ton, production fell by about 360 thousand barrels a day between March and June. The recovery in refinery runs may have also reduced shipments. Data for the first few days of July show the highest level since December as seasonal maintenance and repairs were completed following the Ukrainian attacks.

Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC, Russia’s biggest crude exporters, plan to cut their total shipments from Novorossiysk by about 200,000 barrels a day this month from June’s level after restarting refinery operations at their Tuapse and Norsi facilities, according to Bloomberg calculations.