TL forecast from Commerzbank

Commerzbank announced that it maintained its year-end forecast of 35 for the Turkish lira.

Commerzbank Emerging Market Economist Tatha Ghose stated in a note that the Turkish lira followed a stable course after the Turkish Central Bank raised interest rates to 50 percent.

Reminding that inflation surprised downward for the first time in June, Ghose stated that the Central Bank’s foreign exchange reserves have also recovered. Ghose pointed out that the recent data in the US also supported the lira and other developing country currencies.

However, stating that there are still question marks, Ghose announced that they maintain their forecast of 35 for the end of the year in USD/TL.

“President Erdoğan and Minister Şimşek reassured the market that they will stick to traditional economic policies. The Central Bank management also states that inflation will moderate in the coming months. This will be a critical test. Inflation will slow superficially due to base effects, but if there is no slowdown at the fundamental level, policymakers may experience a new crisis of confidence. We maintain our ‘symbolic forecast’ of 35 for the end of 2024 in USD/TL”.

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