The market expects inflation to come below 50 percent in September

Market participants, who were more optimistic about inflation expectations than households and the real sector, predicted that inflation would be below 50 percent in September.

Market participants participating in Bloomberg HT’s survey predicted annual inflation at 48.3 percent in September. The monthly inflation forecast for the same period was 2.2 percent.

In August, annual inflation was 51.97 percent and monthly inflation was realized as 2.47 percent.

In Bloomberg HT’s survey, the lowest monthly expectation for September inflation was 1.6 percent, while the highest expectation was recorded as 2.5 percent.

On an annual basis, the highest inflation forecast for September was 49 percent, while the lowest forecast pointed to 47.4 percent.

Survey participants also shared their inflation expectations for the end of 2024.

Accordingly, the year-end inflation forecast of 21 institutions for 2024 decreased by 1 point compared to the previous survey period and became 42 percent.

Thus, the year-end inflation expectation of market participants was realized in the upper band of the 34-42 percent range, which is the year-end forecast of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT).

Economists’ highest inflation forecast for the end of 2024 was 45 percent, while the lowest forecast was 40 percent.

Translated with DeepL.com (free version)